Pending Energy Crisis?

[Meadowcopse]

The Alan Garner novel Strandloper mentions such things by a pack-horse salt trader crossing the Cheshire Plain a couple of centuries ago.
He often does some pretty detailed factual research for his books, but I'd still stay clear of such mushrooms...

[oldclaypaws]

Here we go, here we go, here we go..... Just call me an accurate prophet of doom..

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/09/01/uk-ukraine-crisis-russia-gas-idUKKBN0GW2DX20140901

A further thought, not mentioned, is did you know the UK has no propane storage facilities? Currently, believe it or not we export it to Russia, who store it and then sell it back to us as required, so I'm told by my propane supplier. If correct, that would mean potentially a chronic shortage of LPG this winter, or at daft prices. I was going to switch from LPG to wood for firing pots, might be better to bring the plan forward......

I'd also advise anyone who uses heating oil, it might not be a bad move to top up now before the whole domestic energy scene might get very expensive.....(if gas dries up, kerosene, LPG and wood demand and prices will soar) infact, its already happening...

Whatever the EU bloc does, it will struggle to compensate fully if Russian gas stops coming to Europe, political and industry sources say. Gas prices have risen 35 percent since July due to this threat.

[Meadowcopse]

Depends what you mean by 'storage' - a refinery I worked at has bulk LPG storage in huge metal spheres and had sales contracts with a large Calor depot near by (also with bulk storage prior to road tanker and cylinder filling).
Depending on the type of crude oil refining plant, there will be a continuous propane stream produced as part of an integrated refinery, such as from a catalytic cracking plant.

Unfortunately for the UK, the oil majors have felt that there has been too much refining capacity in Europe for the last 10 years or so and combined with a free market have disposed of their refinery assets to other operators (Except Esso at Fawley, but they don't directly operate any north-sea assets) and with the demise of the Cold-War, there is little strategic guidance from Government.

A couple of oil companies specialise in ocean going LPG tankers from Africa / Middle East.

Europe and Norway have bi-directional interconnection with the UK, but in recent years that tends to flow as UK import and again is 'free market' trading.
A few years ago a new Norwegian connection came online to the UK and sent bulk gas prices negative (less than £0 - meaning producers / shippers had to pay to convey to ship their gas through the system) on a day to day basis until forward capacity estimates were reconciled.

On a north-sea gas production platform, an estimate of production is made for each hour of the day a couple of days in advance on a bulletin board for advance sale, with adjustment made for any process disturbances and shutdowns.

One of the interconnectors (for sales quality natural gas) has its own public website where transmission live and historical figures can be found...

http://www.interconnector.com

[oldclaypaws]

If all energy matters are left to the free market without strategic intervention or forward planning by the government, it can leave you rather exposed to crisis such as this. Forced decommissioning of many 'dirty' European power plants and the reliance on gas didn't anticipate that the gas might be turned off during political tensions. Rather naive really. Its left Putin with a very big stick, and based on past form he won't hesitate to use it if he thinks it'll be an effective tool for blackmail. He doesn't mind economic pain and his people suffering if it means territorial gain. Nor did Stalin.

I don't think your average man in the street realises just how serious the current situation is. It seems the cold war is back, and Putin even had the audacity to remind the West that he still has a huge stockpile of nuclear weapons, so 'its better not to mess with Russia'. One colourful Russian politician has called for pre-emptive nuclear strikes to 'teach Europe a lesson', and in 2013 one Russian military exercise carried out a hypothetical nuclear strike on Warsaw. Obama is perceived as a weak liberal who won't act.

Mr Salmonds call for an independant Scotland to close its trident bases now looks like romantic idealism. While mutual assured destruction is a horrific doomsday scenario, it should lead to the global powers raising themselves to a degree of clear thinking and compromise. Its insurance cover. In theory.

There are 150,000 Russian Ex-Pats in London, so maybe Vladimir has Belgravia and Chelsea marked down as prospective additional regions of 'New Russia' ?

[Meadowcopse]

Meanwhile, a possible shortfall in the electricity generation sector...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29038804

Which neatly ties in the off-grid thread and the prudence of having a woodland to supply solid fuel heating...

[oldclaypaws]

I'm about to start putting logs nets up by our garden gate for sale again (we usefully have the postbox there and already sell eggs). I thought a spur to encourage sales might be the sales tagline " Stock up now before Putin turns the gas tap off". Looking increasingly likely; new EU sanctions including capital restrictions against Gazprom start today, this very informative article suggests our actual gas supply is relatively secure compared to the rest of Europe, but it won't stop Europe's energy prices soaring if Vlad plays dirty.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/fear-over-russian-gas-switchoff-sees-eu-states-stockpile-supplies-9727466.html

[Tarrel]

Excellent idea! I'd ask if I could borrow it, but we don't have any mains gas up here.