Small Woodland Owners' Group

Pending Energy Crisis?

Topics that don't easily fit anywhere else!

Pending Energy Crisis?

Postby oldclaypaws » Mon Mar 03, 2014 4:11 pm

The situation in Ukraine seems to be rapidly gathering pace, with both the West and Russia squaring up to each other.

There's no way the US + EU will want a military confrontation with Putin, and he isn't likely to back down, but there's already talk of economic sanctions on the Russians as early as this week. As retaliation, Putin is able to turn off the gas to Europe, and there's likely to also be an interruption to oil supplies.

Fortunately it's happening in the spring, when energy demand is lower, but if this goes the way the drums are beating, possible interruptions to the domestic gas supply and yet another large hike in energy prices are very much on the cards.

Kinda makes it comforting to have a supply of wood.
oldclaypaws
 
Posts: 1132
Joined: Mon Sep 02, 2013 5:13 pm

Re: Pending Energy Crisis?

Postby Bearwood » Mon Mar 03, 2014 4:25 pm

It's probably (unfortunately) the catalyst the pro-fracking fraternity needs....Nothing affects middle England quite like a cold front room.
Bearwood
 
Posts: 161
Joined: Sun Aug 19, 2012 7:04 pm

Re: Pending Energy Crisis?

Postby oldclaypaws » Mon Mar 03, 2014 5:00 pm

I've always said conflicts are expensive, the outcome unpredictable and the innocent suffer the most.

There's clearly a huge question mark over the EU-Russia future 'trust', and yes, relying on them for energy looks strategically daft. The fracking point is a good one, I believe it was the dependence on Middle East oil and the economic cost of the tensions with Iran & Iraq that spurred on the search for domestic energy self reliance in the USA.

If you can find a stock listing for frackers and woodburner manufacturers, it might be a sound investment under current circumstances.
oldclaypaws
 
Posts: 1132
Joined: Mon Sep 02, 2013 5:13 pm

Re: Pending Energy Crisis?

Postby Wendelspanswick » Mon Mar 03, 2014 5:56 pm

oldclaypaws wrote:The situation in Ukraine seems to be rapidly gathering pace, with both the West and Russia squaring up to each other.

There's no way the US + EU will want a military confrontation with Putin, and he isn't likely to back down, but there's already talk of economic sanctions on the Russians as early as this week. As retaliation, Putin is able to turn off the gas to Europe, and there's likely to also be an interruption to oil supplies.

Fortunately it's happening in the spring, when energy demand is lower, but if this goes the way the drums are beating, possible interruptions to the domestic gas supply anit'st another large hike in energy prices are very much on the cards.

Kinda makes it comforting to have a supply of wood.


What makes you think that oil supplies will be interrupted?
Wendelspanswick
 
Posts: 351
Joined: Tue Oct 22, 2013 10:03 am
Location: Somerset

Re: Pending Energy Crisis?

Postby oldclaypaws » Mon Mar 03, 2014 6:24 pm

From Reuters;
* Russia strengthens control over Crimea, calls U.N. meeting
* Risk to oil flows seen low but Russia key supplier
* Russian natural gas supply in doubt, European storage high
* U.S. manufacturing growth rebounds from 8-month low

(Updates news on Crimea, adds new prices, analyst commentary,
changes byline, dateline, previous LONDON)
By Elizabeth Dilts
NEW YORK, March 3 (Reuters) - Crude oil prices rose by more
than $2 a barrel on Monday as tensions mounted amid Russian
military intervention on the Crimean peninsula.
The U.N. Security Council announced it will hold its third
emergency meeting on the Ukraine crisis on Monday, this time at
Russia's request, as Moscow tightens its hold on Crimea,
diplomats said.
Russia is one of the world's biggest oil producers, and
while analysts said it was unlikely Russian oil supplies would
be disrupted by the Ukraine crisis, global oil prices rose as
investors pulled out of riskier assets like stocks.
Brent crude spiked to an intra-session peak of
$112.39 per barrel, its highest since Dec. 30, and was up $2.30
at $111.37 by 12:14 p.m. EST (1714 GMT).
U.S. crude jumped as much as $2.63 to a high of
$105.22 a barrel, before easing to $104.65.
"There is a risk premium in the oil markets in anticipation
of this situation turning into something worse than it is," said
Dominick Chirichella, senior partner at Energy Management
Institute in New York.


- I don't think the West can afford an economic embargo on Russian oil, it would be too damaging to our economies, but if it gets into a tit for tat economic war, Russia could restrict supplies to us and cause uncertainty in the markets.

One of the troubles with conflicts is they can rapidly get out of hand and the possible knock on effects are unpredictable. Middle East tensions always up the oil price, and so will Russian tensions. Just look at the current oil price moves today to see that.
oldclaypaws
 
Posts: 1132
Joined: Mon Sep 02, 2013 5:13 pm

Re: Pending Energy Crisis?

Postby oldclaypaws » Mon Mar 03, 2014 6:54 pm

Apparently, lots of Russian Oil exports go through Ukraine, so if the Ukraine Govt wants to have a pop at the Russians, maybe they have a lever. 70% of Russian exports are oil and gas. Could get bitchy. This article suggests an interruption to Russian oil exports is on the cards.

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/03/02/oil-prices-rise-on-fears-of-supply-disruption-over-ukraine/
oldclaypaws
 
Posts: 1132
Joined: Mon Sep 02, 2013 5:13 pm

Re: Pending Energy Crisis?

Postby Meadowcopse » Mon Mar 03, 2014 10:54 pm

My 'day job' (when not off ill) is on a north-sea gas and oil installation. (Ironic considering my spare time conservation and woodland interests).
It is one of the newer large installations from the 1990s and was designed to break even at a 10th of current barrel of oil equivalent prices.

Of more pressing interest to woodland owners if energy prices increase, will be firewood thefts increasing...

Meanwhile, about half a mile from my orchard plot I have a CBM (coal bed methane) test drill rig going in

Image
Meadowcopse
 
Posts: 207
Joined: Sun Jul 04, 2010 7:13 am
Location: Cheshire

Re: Pending Energy Crisis?

Postby TerryH » Tue Mar 04, 2014 9:07 pm

Meadowcopse wrote:Meanwhile, about half a mile from my orchard plot I have a CBM (coal bed methane) test drill rig going in


Would you have any mineral rights if it's successful and it extends under your orchard? Let's hope you get an unexpected windfall and not an unexpected sinkhole !
TerryH
 
Posts: 65
Joined: Sun Jan 05, 2014 3:23 pm
Location: Surrey/West Sussex

Re: Pending Energy Crisis?

Postby Meadowcopse » Tue Mar 04, 2014 9:20 pm

Mineral rights were stitched up a few years ago to the UK Government for licensing, unless anyone had the foresight to think of future resources or an obscure old fashioned title (and even these had to be re-submitted a couple of years ago explicitly for mineral rights).

What I do have amongst some copies of old manuscripts from the records office, is a Court Order from around 1380 when the area used for the test drill site was a 'sanctuary' for minor felons taking training for a year and a day to fight the Welsh. The (Chester Crown) Court Order goes on to prescribe that no injury be committed upon or within ye Kings Marsh at Overmarsh that damages the land - I wonder if it is still valid?
Meadowcopse
 
Posts: 207
Joined: Sun Jul 04, 2010 7:13 am
Location: Cheshire

Re: Pending Energy Crisis?

Postby oldclaypaws » Tue Mar 04, 2014 9:28 pm

Isn't it reassuring to know that our friend Vladimir is using a calm cool head to defuse tensions.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2014/03/russia-launches-icbm-despite-rising-tensions/


What's wrong with the pillock?, does he have a personal dimension deficiency and need to prove he has big tools?

If anyone has designs for bomb shelters in their woods, might be a good time to share them. ???

The world has truly gone mad.
oldclaypaws
 
Posts: 1132
Joined: Mon Sep 02, 2013 5:13 pm

Next

Return to General

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests

cron